There has been no substantial progress in the negotiations on global trade frictions. The negotiations on the renewal of the North American Free Trade Agreement are still in the doldrums. The negotiations between the EU, Japan and China and the United States have not yet officially started. The global market faces various uncertainties and reacts differently.
After the United States and Mexico reached a bilateral free trade agreement, Canada immediately joined the negotiations on the trilateral free trade agreement. However, after Canada joined, it did not reach a tripartite agreement as soon as the United States wanted, and the core differences between the United States and Canada remained unresolved.
At present, the differences between the United States and Canada are currently concentrated on dairy product access, the dispute resolution mechanism in Chapter 19 of the existing agreement, and Canada's cultural protection of domestic media companies. With the October 19 update of the North American FTA negotiations deadlines, the final step can determine whether the new trilateral agreement can be reached.
In the United States and the European Union, European Commission President Jonker unexpectedly reached an intention with the United States in mid-July. The EU agreed to import more soybeans and liquefied gas from the United States in the future. The two sides agreed to talk about the issue of eliminating industrial tariffs. But the United States is not willing to discuss the topic of canceling the car tax.
The United States and Japan, according to Japan’s NHK report on September 12, the representatives of the United States and Japan unanimously stated that they will carry out relevant coordination and strive to conduct the second consultation on the 21st of this month. It is expected that the negotiations will include automobile tariffs and agricultural product market opening. Constructive issues. In the first round of the US-Japan ministerial talks in August, the atmosphere between Japan and the United States ended the negotiations with sorrow. The two countries are in a state of opposition in the negotiation of major issues. First, on the trade rules, the United States requires bilateral trade agreements, while the Japanese side attaches importance to multilateral frameworks such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. Second, the market has been open to the United States. Expand car imports and open beef markets. The two sides only reached a consensus on formulating a common strategy to promote trade development. The Japanese media believe that if the two sides do not change their opinions, the subsequent trade consultations between the two countries may lose their direction.
In the context of the global economic recovery being plagued by trade frictions, commodities as a whole bear a certain downward pressure on prices, and the safe-haven function of gold gradually emerges.
At present, the price of December gold in the United States fluctuates around $1,200 per ounce. Many professional institutions have seen more gold. As of the week of September 11, the net short position of gold has dropped by 9% from the previous week. Analysts said that despite concerns about global trade conflicts and turmoil in emerging market economies, gold prices have not benefited. But if these risks increase and begin to have a greater impact on the stock market, the precious metals may be in a good position.
In the crude oil market, since July this year, the two opposite opinions have been affecting the direction of global crude oil prices. One view is that in the context of Iran’s supply shortage caused by sanctions, oil prices will continue to rise until the $100/barrel will be the general trend. Another opinion is that the downward trend in demand triggered by the trade war will eventually overwhelm the supply shortage, and eventually bring the oil price back to the range of about 50 US dollars / barrel. At present, the tug-of-war of crude oil prices is not showing signs of ending.
The long-term trend of trade friction also inhibits the rise in industrial metal prices. The price of industrial metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) is mostly weak. The current three-month copper is less than $6,000 per ton. Analysts believe that overseas markets are now more concerned about macro-environmental changes. Under the worries of increased global trade friction, Fed rate hike cycle, and emerging market debt risk, the overall sentiment in overseas markets has turned to bearish.